US universities may be heading into a difficult phase for postgraduate education, with new projections pointing to a sharp slowdown in international master’s enrolments in the 2025/26 academic year. The decline comes after several years in which overseas students played a central role in sustaining growth in US master’s programmes, even as domestic participation weakened.According to a recent market analysis by higher education research firm Validated Insights, US institutions are now expected to enrol around 64,000 fewer international master’s students in 2025/26 than earlier projections had suggested. Previous forecasts had placed international master’s enrolments at close to 660,000 students, but changing policy conditions and falling demand have altered those expectations.
International students sustained master’s growth despite domestic decline
The findings highlight how dependent US master’s programmes have become on international students over the past decade. Analysis by Validated Insights shows that between 2018/19 and 2023/24, domestic master’s enrolment declined by 0.5%, while international enrolments grew by more than 6%. This divergence still resulted in modest overall growth of 0.4% across US master’s programmes.Growth accelerated further after the pandemic. Since 2021, international master’s enrolments increased by over 11%, helping universities maintain course viability and financial stability. The projected decline for 2025/26 therefore represents a significant break from recent trends.
Application volumes already showing strain
The outlook is based not only on forecasts but also on signals from institutions themselves. The Validated Insights study, which draws on data from multiple sector bodies, indicates that nearly half of US institutions expect international graduate application volumes to decline this year.This builds on earlier evidence from the Institute of International Education (IIE). In its institutional surveys, 42% of US institutions reported a fall in international graduate applications last year, suggesting that the downturn has been developing gradually rather than emerging suddenly.Further confirmation comes from NAFSA: Association of International Educators, which reported that new international master’s enrolments fell by 19% year-on-year in fall 2025, one of the steepest non-pandemic declines recorded.
Student interest in the US weakening
Demand-side indicators also point to a loss of momentum. Data from global student search platform Studyportals shows that interest in studying in the US has dropped sharply in 2025. Based on prospective student search behaviour, interest in US programmes fell by about 50% between January and April 2025, indicating that many students are reconsidering their study destinations.Education analysts link this shift to growing uncertainty around post-study work options and longer-term immigration pathways, especially when compared with countries offering clearer and more predictable policies.
STEM master’s programmes face the highest risk
The impact of declining international enrolments is expected to vary significantly by discipline. The Validated Insights report notes that international students are heavily over-represented in STEM master’s programmes, making these courses particularly vulnerable.International students account for roughly 80% of software engineering graduates and 77% of computer science graduates at the master’s level. In contrast, programmes in education and healthcare tend to have much lower proportions of international students.Because of this concentration, the report warns that several high-demand STEM master’s programmes are now structurally dependent on international enrolments, increasing the risk of course consolidation or closure if the downward trend continues.
Wider economic and workforce implications
The implications extend beyond university campuses. According to NAFSA’s economic impact analysis, sustained declines in international student numbers could result in approximately $7 billion in lost economic activity, affecting local economies, employment, and research output.Validated Insights notes that reduced international enrolments may also intensify talent shortages in technology-driven fields, including artificial intelligence, data science, cyber security, and engineering. These are areas where domestic graduate supply already struggles to meet labour market demand.Over time, analysts warn that weaker enrolments could slow innovation, increase hiring challenges for US employers, and reduce the country’s competitiveness in emerging technologies.
Immigration policy concerns influencing student choices
Survey data suggests that immigration and post-study work policies are shaping student decisions. In a recent NAFSA survey of current international students, more than half said they would not have chosen the US if access to the H-1B visa were primarily determined by wage thresholds.Similarly, a majority indicated that the absence of Optional Practical Training (OPT) would have deterred them from enrolling, while many master’s students planning to stay in the US said they would reconsider if post-study work options were removed.With recent changes to skilled worker visa rules and ongoing debate around OPT, sector analysts caution that the projected decline in international master’s enrolments may persist rather than reverse quickly.As US universities plan for the coming years, the data suggests that reliance on international students to sustain master’s programmes can no longer be assumed, particularly in high-cost, high-demand STEM fields.
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