Stock market outlook: Macros in focus as GDP, IIP data due this week; Analysts flag volatility ahead of derivatives expiry

India’s equity markets are expected to see heightened volatility this week, driven by key domestic macroeconomic data releases, global market cues and foreign investor activity, analysts said. “This week, volatility may increase ahead of the November derivatives expiry. Domestically, markets will track several high-impact macro releases, including Q2 GDP data and industrial production,” Ajit Mishra, SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd, said, PTI quoted. “Globally, investors will continue to monitor US market performance and key economic releases for direction. These indicators are expected to shape near-term risk sentiment and influence foreign flows,” he added. Last week, the BSE Sensex gained 669.14 points, or 0.79 per cent, while the Nifty rose 158.1 points, or 0.61 per cent. On November 20, the Sensex hit a 52-week high of 85,801.70 and the Nifty touched 26,246.65.Pressure on rupee may trigger profit-booking Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Financial Services, said the market could witness profit-taking if currency pressures persist. “The market may witness some profit-booking in the near term if the pressure on the rupee persists. In the week ahead, investors will also have a close vigil on trade developments and economic data like IIP and Q2 FY26 GDP data to get the market direction,” Nair said, PTI quoted him as saying.Oil prices, rupee movement and US cues watched Movement in Brent crude, the rupee-dollar trend and global risk sentiment may also shape market direction. “Overall, we expect markets to remain firm this week, supported by buying on dips, improving demand outlook in Q3 and resilient flows. Any progress on the India-US trade talks would be a key short-term catalyst for the markets,” said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. Puneet Singhania, Director at Master Trust Group, said domestic conditions remain supportive. “Indian markets are likely to trade with a mildly positive bias, supported by resilient domestic macros and markets at near all-time highs,” he said.