Canada is facing a significant decline in international student approvals, with the number of new post-secondary study permits projected to fall to just 80,000 in 2025. This represents a 62% decrease from last year and is the lowest level in a decade, according to data shared by the ApplyBoard.The drop has surpassed the decline observed during the Covid-19 pandemic and marks a historic shift in Canada’s international education sector. Onshore students, or those already studying in Canada, are expected to account for nearly two-thirds of all study permits issued this year, a sharp change in the enrolment mix.Post-secondary approvals fall to decade lowThe federal government’s new study permit caps, introduced in 2024 and tightened in 2025, have significantly reduced the number of new international students. The ApplyBoard projects that only 80,000 new permits will be approved in full-year 2025, far below pre-pandemic levels.As quoted by the ApplyBoard, “This projected volume represents the lowest intake of new international students witnessed in the past decade, signalling an unprecedented shift in Canada’s global student recruitment model.”Approval rates for post-secondary study permits have also dropped sharply. Through August 2025, approvals were down to 37%, compared with the 60% assumed during initial cap calculations, as reported by the ApplyBoard.Canadian colleges bear the bruntCanadian colleges are particularly affected by the declining intake. Nearly 80% of study permits issued for college programmes in 2025 are expected to be extensions for onshore students, leaving fewer than 30,000 new permits for incoming students.
Source: IRCCThe ApplyBoard highlighted that “Colleges are on pace to account for about 30% of all new Canadian study permits issued in 2025, down from 57% just two years ago.”Universities, by contrast, are showing signs of soft recovery. Study permit approval rates for university programmes rose from 30% in May 2025 to 55% in August, as noted by the ApplyBoard.Onshore students account for majority of approvalsThe shift towards onshore students has fundamentally changed the composition of Canada’s international student population. Nearly two-thirds of all post-secondary study permits issued this year will go to students already in Canada.
Source: IRCCAs quoted by the ApplyBoard, “This substantial increase in the proportion of issuances for study permit extensions is nearly inverse to other non-pandemic years.”The reliance on extensions raises concerns about future student numbers. ApplyBoard projections indicate that Canada’s total international student population could shrink by up to 50% in 2026 if new student inflows remain low.Summer approvals show limited recoveryData for the summer of 2025 shows a modest improvement in approvals. Between June and August, over 35,000 new post-secondary study permits were issued, compared with just over 23,000 in the preceding five months, as reported by the ApplyBoard.
Source: IRCCThe ApplyBoard noted that “While university approval rates are returning to IRCC target levels, Canadian colleges continue to face significant challenges with approval rates remaining around 25%.”Implications for 2026 and beyondWith new international student approvals at a decade low, post-secondary institutions are expected to face continued pressure in 2026. The ApplyBoard warned that without sufficient inflows of new students, the international student population may decline sharply, particularly at colleges.The shift in Canada’s student intake also affects diversity. Students from India, the Philippines, and African nations continue to face low approval rates, limiting representation across campuses, as highlighted by the ApplyBoard.Canada’s international education sector is undergoing one of its most significant transformations in recent history. The projected 62% drop in new student approvals underscores the challenges universities and colleges will face in adapting to a shrinking intake while maintaining student population stability.Universities face changing enrolment patternsCanadian universities are adjusting to the decline in new international students, with summer 2025 data showing rising approval rates from 30% in May to 55% in August, as quoted by the ApplyBoard. While colleges see only 25% approval for new students, universities report a near 50/50 split between new and onshore students. ApplyBoard notes that this shift allows universities to maintain some stability in student numbers, even as overall intake drops to the decade low of 80,000 study permits.
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