India can lift exports to Russia from $5 bn to $35 bn! Why a modern rupee-rouble settlement system is needed – explained

India has the potential to increase its merchandise exports to Russia seven-fold—from $5 billion to $35 billion by 2030—if it secures market access in food, pharmaceuticals, textiles and machinery, according to Global Trade and Research Initiative (GTRI) founder Ajay Srivastava. The report comes as President Vladimir Putin visits Delhi and as Moscow reiterates its goal of lifting bilateral trade to $100 billion by the end of the decade.Although total trade is now approaching $70 billion, India’s exports remain stuck below $5 billion, while imports—dominated by crude oil—continue to surge. In FY2025, India exported $4.9 billion worth of goods to Russia but imported $63.8 billion, leaving a $58.9 billion trade deficit. Crude oil alone accounted for $50.3 billion, underlining how bilateral commerce has become “an oil-heavy relationship rather than a balanced partnership,” as Srivastava noted.Where India is missing the Russian marketGTRI mapped sectors where Russia is a major global importer, India is a major global exporter, but India’s market share in Russia is below 5%.In 2024, Russia imported $202.6 billion worth of goods, but Indian shipments accounted for just $4.84 billion—a 2.4% share.The widest gaps appear in food and agriculture. Russia imported $4.34bn of fruits and nuts, $1.62bn of oilseeds, $1.21bn of edible oils, $889m of meat and $518m of dairy. India’s combined exports across these categories were under $250 million—despite being a major global exporter of meat ($3.95bn), oilseeds ($2.17bn) and fruits ($1.67bn).Processed food mirrors the same imbalance. Russia spent $689m on cereal-based preparations and $1.15bn on processed fruit and vegetables; India sold just $0.6m and $42.7m respectively. Tobacco imports stood at $966m, while India contributed $37.5m.Fast-moving consumer goods and chemicals show a similar gap. Russia imported $3.13bn of perfumery and essential oils and $1.07bn of soaps and detergents, but India exported only $21.8m and $29.1m. In inorganic chemicals, Russia imported $5bn, while India shipped $219m.Pharmaceuticals—India’s strongest globally—are also under-represented. Russia imported $11.8bn of medicines, while India exported $413.5m, a 3.5% share despite being a $23bn-plus global pharma supplier.Textiles and apparel present even sharper gaps. Russia imported $730m of man-made filaments, $566m of fibres and $740m of knitted fabrics—but India exported $25.6m, $9m and zero respectively. In clothing, Russia imported $3.65bn of knitwear and $3.03bn of woven garments; India supplied just $24m and $76m.Engineering and manufacturing display breadth without depth. Russia imported $3bn of iron and steel and $3.5bn of fabricated metal products. India exported $140m and $76m. In industrial machinery, Russia imported $37bn, while India supplied $1.1bn. Electrical equipment imports were $20.5bn, but Indian exports were $424m. In optical and medical instruments, Russia bought nearly $7bn, while India exported $130m.The gap is widest in consumer industries. Russia imported $29bn of vehicles, but India exported just $45m. In furniture, Russia imported $2.3bn, while India sent less than $4m. Toys and sports goods saw Russian imports of $1.9bn, while India exported $6m.Why exports are stuck: the payments problemGTRI stresses that the absence of a predictable, efficient payment system is the single biggest barrier to Indian exporters. With Russian banks cut off from SWIFT, transactions have become slow, costly, and uncertain, limiting exporters’ willingness to enter the market.“Without a modern rupee–rouble settlement system, Russia may remain India’s largest oil supplier—but not a serious export market,” Srivastava noted.In the Soviet era, India and the USSR used a fixed rupee–rouble mechanism where trade was settled at a pre-agreed exchange rate, bypassing dollar dependence. A modern equivalent, the report argues, is essential to:

Alongside currency reform, the report calls for sector-specific buyer–seller meets, dedicated trade missions, and institutional support to push Indian goods into Russian supermarkets, factories and distribution networks.What India must build to reach $35bnTo deepen its foothold in a $202bn Russian import market, India needs a multi-pronged approach. This includes:

If these structural reforms are implemented, GTRI estimates India can lift exports from $5bn to $35bn by 2030, dramatically narrowing the trade deficit and expanding India’s economic footprint in Eurasia.