Wall Street analysts betting on Apple weathering the memory crisis may want to reconsider. While the iPhone maker’s executives have been practically living in South Korean hotels trying to secure chip supplies, semiconductor analyst Jukan warns the street is “way too optimistic” about Apple’s position—and price hikes are coming this month.Apple’s purchasing teams have set up what local media calls a “hotel headquarters” near Samsung and SK Hynix plants in Hwaseong and Pangyo. The goal: negotiate favorable long-term contracts before memory prices climb even higher. But the chipmakers aren’t budging, and the numbers tell a brutal story about Apple’s leverage—or lack thereof.
Samsung charging its own mobile unit 70% more for chips
Here’s the reality check: Samsung’s semiconductor division just hit its own smartphone unit with a 60-70% DRAM price increase. “They’re pushing such an absurd condition even on MX, which is part of the same family,” Jukan posted. “So just imagine how much they’re raising prices for other companies.”Samsung co-CEO TM Roh acknowledged the squeeze at CES this week, telling Reuters that “no company is immune” to the shortage’s impact. He didn’t rule out price hikes across Samsung’s product lineup, from smartphones to TVs and home appliances. The warning came as Samsung reported its Q4 operating profit nearly tripled, driven largely by surging memory chip sales.That internal markup reveals how little room Apple has to negotiate. If Samsung won’t cut deals for divisions under the same corporate umbrella, why would it offer Apple better terms? Both Samsung and SK Hynix are planning fresh price increases for Apple starting this month, according to Jukan’s sources.The analyst’s skepticism comes as investors assume Apple’s scale and cash reserves will shield it from the worst effects. But scale doesn’t matter when there’s simply not enough supply to go around. Every HBM chip Samsung makes for Nvidia’s AI accelerators means fewer LPDDR5X modules available for iPhones.
Memory now eats 20% of smartphone costs as AI demand explodes
The math has shifted dramatically: memory components now represent over 20% of smartphone production costs, up from 15% months ago. A 12GB RAM module costs approximately $70 today versus $21 in early 2025—a 230% jump that even Apple’s legendary supply chain management can’t negotiate away.Samsung and SK Hynix are only offering quarterly contracts, not the multi-year agreements Apple wants. They’re betting on continued price escalation through 2027 as AI infrastructure buildouts consume available capacity. The hotel stays may be extended, but the chipmakers are in no hurry to compromise.
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