Gold price prediction: Gold prices are likely to rise in the near-term, says Praveen Singh, Senior Fundamental Research Analyst- Currencies and Commodities at Mirae Asset Sharekhan. The analyst shares his views on gold and silver price outlook and what levels investors should watch out for:
Gold Performance: Huge weekly gain
- On December 1, spot gold traded between $4206 and $4264. The yellow metal at the time of writing this article was trading nearly 0.2% lower at $4230.
- The MCX February gold contract at Rs 130,499 was up by 0.77%.
- In the week ending November 28, the metal surged 4.25% for the week.
- As the Fed leaders including the Governor Waller and NY Fed President Willaims have called for December rate cut, rate cut probability has surged sharply. Kevin Hassett emerging as the leading candidate for the Fed Chair post has further boosted easy monetary policy expectations in near future as he is closely aligned with Trump’s economic policies and has called for rate cuts.
- Gold advanced for the fourth straight month in November as it registered a gain of 5.75% for the month.
ETF holdings and COMEX inventory: ETF holdings rise
- Total known global gold ETF holdings stood at 97.503 MOz as of November 28, the highest level since October 30 and roughly around 3-year high. Holdings rose 0.20 MOz (6.22 tons) in the week ending November 28.
- Eligible COMEX gold inventory at 18.2 MOz is down by 18.75% from the cycle peak of 22.45 MOz noted on April 14 in the wake of Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’. Total COMEX gold inventory stands at 36.35 MOz, down 19.34% from the record peak of 45.07 MOz reached on April 4.
Goldman Sachs gold survey: 36% see gold topping $5KIn a recently concluded survey by Goldman Sachs, nearly 70% of its investors expect gold prices to rise further by the end of 2026. A survey of more than 900 clients revealed that 36% of them see gold topping $5,000 a troy ounce by 2026-end on continued central bank demand (38%) and fiscal worries (27%)Data roundup: US and Chinese data weak
- S&P Global US manufacturing PMI final data released on December 1 at 52.20 topped the forecast of 51.90 (prior 51.9). However, US ISM manufacturing PMI fell from 48.70 in October to 48.20 in November Vs the forecast of 49 as ISM prices paid rose from 58 to 58.50. ISM manufacturing Index fell to one-year low as manufacturing contracted for the ninth consecutive month. New orders shrank and lagged the forecast., while ISM employment fell to 3-month low of 44 and contracted faster than the forecast 46.
- US ADP reported that for the four weeks ending Nov. 8, 2025, private US employers shed an average of 13,500 jobs/week.
- China’s official NBS Manufacturing declined for the eighth straight month in November: Although the PMI increased from 49 in October to 49.20, matching the forecast, it remained stuck in the contraction zone. China’s NBS nonmanufacturing PMI came in at 49.50 in November Vs the forecast of 50 (prior 50.10), while China’s RatingDog manufacturing PMI unexpectedly contracted as the PMI came in at 49.90 Vs the estimate of 50.50
- US data released last week were mostly disappointing/soft. The Fed Beige book reflected soft consumer spending and a cooling labour market. University of Michigan sentiment came in at 51 in its November final reading, remaining around record low, though inflation expectations eased. US Retail sales advance rose by 0.2% m-o-m in September Vs the forecast of 0.4%. Retail sales control group unexpectedly contracted. PPI final demand was up by 0.3% m-o-m in September that matched the estimate (prior -0.1%) but core PPI increased by 0.1% Vs the forecast of 0.2% (prior -0.1%). Conference Board Consumer Confidence fell from 95.50 in October to 88.70 in November, the lowest since April.
US Dollar Index and yields: Dollar under pressureAt the time of writing this article, the US Dollar Index was seen 0.26% lower at 99.10. Ten-year US yields at 4.09% were up by nearly 8 bps, while 2-year yields rose approximately 1.1% to 3.53%. The US bonds fell on a surge of new corporate bond supply to begin in December. Bonds came under additional pressure on a possibility of Bank of Japan hiking rates in December that pushed the 10-year JGB to its highest level since 2008, while 2-year borrowing costs climbed above 1% for the first time since 2008.Geopolitics watch: Venezuela also in focus
- A US delegation led by President Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff will start negotiations over the Ukraine war this week. The situation remains tense as EU’s diplomats have expressed concerns that the US may push Ukraine into a skewed peace plan with Russia which may ultimately encourage Russia’s war mongering.
- US President Trump will hold a meeting tonight on next steps on Venezuela. On November 30, President Donald Trump said airlines should consider the airspace above and around Venezuela to be closed while he pushes for more aggressive steps against President Nicolas Maduro’s government.
December Fed rate cut probability: Almost certainDecember Fed rate cut probability has surged to 88% from 24% on November 20.Upcoming data and events: Focus on ADP, ISM services and PCE Price Index
- Major US data on tap this week include ADP employment change (Dec. 3), ISM services (Dec. 3), Import and export price indices (Dec. 3), ISM services (Dec. 3), weekly job report (Dec. 4), PCE Price Index (Dec. 5) and University of Michigan sentiment and inflation expectations (Dec. 5).
- European data include Eurozone’s unemployment rate (Dec. 2), CPI (Dec. 2), services and composite PMIs (Dec. 3) and 3Q third GDP reading and 3Q final employment reading (Dec. 5). UK’s services and composite PMIs will be released on Dec. 3 respectively.
- Fed Chair Powell will speak briefly on George Shultz and his economic policy contribution at Memorial Event on Dec. 2.
- Michelle Bowman, Vice Chair for Supervision of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, will testify before the House Committee on Dec. 2 and will speak on Bank Supervision and regulation on Dec. 4.
Gold Price Outlook: Positive
- Spot gold is expected to rise further on the Fed rate cut expectations and economic concerns as PMIs out of China and the US disappoint.
- Vanke, a leading Chinese property developer, has asked for a 12-month extension to pay its 2 billion yuan note originally due on Dec. 15 along with interest. China Real Estate Information Corp. and China Index Academy withheld monthly home sales figures of the nation’s 100 largest developers for November on Sunday.
- Gold may reach all-time high of $4381 in near-term. Support is at $4160/$4100. Intermediate resistance is at $4245/$4300.
Silver: Surges more than 3%
- At the time of writing, spot silver was changing hands at $58.28, up 3.18% for the day as the US Dollar Index fell.
- In the week ending November 28, spot silver surged nearly 13% on huge ETF inflows and Fed rate cut hopes.
- Silver is also benefitting on inventory dislocation as Chinese silver inventory at SGE and SHFE warehouses have plummeted to almost decade-lows.
- Gold/Silver ratio has plunged below the strong 200-month support at 73.25, which can boost silver further.
- However, as US and Chinese economic indicators do not portray strong economies, investors need to be careful at the current levels.
- Overall, silver can extend its rally to $62-$65 level in the coming weeks/months unless risk appetite weakens.
- Buying the dips with stop-loss below $54 is the preferred strategy.
Note: Domestic precious metals prices are getting an additional boost from exchange rate moves as the USD-INR surged to a fresh record high on December 1 due to uncertainty over the US-India trade deal.(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market, other asset classes or personal finance management tips given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)
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