Gold prices, which touched fresh record highs in India last week, may face a crucial test in the coming days as global macroeconomic cues and Federal Reserve signals drive investor sentiment, analysts said.The most-traded October contract on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) surged to an all-time high of Rs 1,04,090 per 10 grams on Friday before settling just below record levels. The rally was aided by a weaker rupee, which closed at an unprecedented 88.09 against the US dollar, down 51 paise, amid heavy foreign fund outflows and rising tensions over a trade deal with Washington, PTI reported.“In the week ahead, focus will be on the manufacturing and services PMI data across regions, and the US employment report. Festive demand in India and uncertainty over the Russia-Ukraine peace deal, as well as straining India-US relations, will also drive market sentiment,” said Pranav Mer, Vice President, EBG — Commodity & Currency Research, JM Financial Services.Mer noted that while some profit booking is likely, the broader trend remains supportive. “Gold prices may find support with an upside potential of Rs 1,08,000–1,10,000 per 10 grams in the short term,” he said.The rupee’s weakness is providing an additional lift to domestic bullion prices, said Aksha Kamboj, Vice President of the India Bullion and Jewellers Association. “In the domestic market, a weakening rupee is keeping gold elevated, with rates likely to stay above Rs 1 lakh per 10 grams,” she said.She also flagged the recent US appeals court ruling that declared President Donald Trump’s tariffs illegal, noting that any further developments on the issue will be closely tracked by traders.Globally, Comex gold futures for December delivery ended 1.2% higher at $3,530.70 per ounce in New York on Saturday, close to the historic peak of $3,534.10 reached on August 8. Prathamesh Mallya, DVP–Research, Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies at Angel One, said international bullion has rallied nearly 6.6% since August 20.However, analysts warned of near-term corrections after the steep climb. “In the week ahead, gold prices might see some correction as prices are at their highest levels in both international and domestic markets, while the dollar index is also near its crucial make-or-break point of 100,” Mallya said.Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s recent remarks highlighting labour market risks have fuelled expectations of a rate cut at the September 16–17 policy meeting, but political uncertainty has deepened after Trump’s public attempt to oust Fed Governor Lisa Cook raised concerns about the central bank’s independence.Analysts expect heightened volatility in bullion. While the long-term outlook remains constructive on hopes of monetary easing and festive demand in India, traders may see sharp swings in the near term.(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market and other asset classes given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)
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