The organised gold loan market is projected to touch Rs 15 lakh crore by March 2026 — a full year ahead of earlier forecasts — as banks tighten their dominance and expand faster than non-banking financial companies (NBFCs), according to a report by rating agency Icra.The agency had earlier estimated in September 2024 that the market would reach the Rs 15 lakh crore milestone by March 2027, PTI reported. It now expects the organised segment to grow further to Rs 18 lakh crore by FY2027, driven by soaring gold prices and rising demand for secured credit.“The sharp revision in forecasts is driven primarily by the steady uptrend in gold prices, which have scaled new highs and propelled faster-than-expected growth in the sector,” Icra said. The report noted that banks continue to strengthen their lead over NBFCs in the gold loan business.As of March 2025, banks accounted for about 82 per cent of the overall organised gold loan portfolio, the agency said. Their assets under management (AUM) grew at a compounded annual growth rate of nearly 26 per cent between FY2020 and FY2025 — outpacing the 20 per cent growth posted by NBFCs over the same period.The overall gold loan AUM stood at Rs 11.8 lakh crore as of March 2025, expanding at around 26 per cent annually over FY2024 and FY2025, Icra said. The data also showed a strategic shift in banks’ portfolio mix, with retail and personal gold loans rising to 18 per cent of total AUM in March 2025 from 11 per cent a year earlier, while agriculture and other loans secured by gold fell to 63 per cent from above 70 per cent.According to AM Karthik, Senior Vice President and Co-Group Head, Financial Sector Ratings at Icra, NBFCs are also expected to post strong growth in the coming year. “We foresee NBFC gold loan AUM to expand by 30-35 per cent in FY2026, considering elevated gold prices and lower growth in unsecured loan products, which are also generally targeted at the same borrower segments,” he said.He added that diversification by lenders and the sizeable volume of free gold holdings across households provide “strong visibility” for continued expansion in the segment.As of June 2025, NBFCs’ total gold loan AUM was estimated at Rs 2.4 lakh crore, registering about 41 per cent year-on-year growth. The sector remains concentrated among a few key players, with the top four accounting for 81 per cent of NBFC gold loans as of March 2025, Icra noted.
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