NEW DELHI: India’s oil demand will increase more than any other country, accounting for 12% of global energy market on the back of rapid economic growth through 2050, according to BP plc chief economist Spencer Dale.“When we look ahead, India is the fastest-growing energy market in the world… So when we think about what’s driving global energy, India is at the heart of that process,” Dale said on Monday, setting the context for company chief executive Murray Michael Auchinclos’ visit on Tuesday and likely meeting with prime minister Narendra Modi.According to BP’s Energy Outlook 2025, India is expected to guzzle 9.1 million bpd (barrels per day) of oil by 2050, up more than 68% from 5.4 bpd at present. Natural gas consumption also more than doubles to 153 bcm (billion cubic meters) from 63 bcm at present.India needs more of all types of energy as demand grows more quickly than anywhere else, Dale said, adding that, while the share of renewable sources such as solar and wind grows, fossil fuels will continue to stay.The statement explains BP’s rising interest in India’s upstream sector, especially since the reforms started by the Modi government. The company has been in India for a century through its Castrol brand of lubricants. It landed in the thick of India’s exploration business in 2013 with $7.2 billion deal for a 30% stake in Reliance Industries Ltd’s KG-D6 block. The projections in the outlook are based on two scenarios: ‘current trajectory’ and ‘below 2-degree’, the latter showing future energy consumption within the Paris climate deal’s target of limiting global warming to below 2 degrees Celsius.“Energy demand increases in all scenarios driven by robust economic growth and rising prosperity,” he said. In the current trajectory, coal remains India’s largest source of energy, with its share in the energy mix staying above 40% in 2050 but dropping sharply to 16% in the below-2–degrees scenario, he said. Renewable energy becomes the largest source of primary energy in 2050 in the below-2-degrees scenario and the second largest in in the current trajectory.Electricity plays an increasingly important role in meeting India’s energy needs. In 2023 around 20% of energy was consumed in the form of electricity. By 2050, this grows to over 30% in current trajectory and to below 50% in below-2-degrees. India is the world’s third-largest oil importing and consuming nation, and fourth-largest LNG importer.
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