President Donald Trump’s move to impose a 100% tariff on films made outside the United States is expected to severely dent revenues of Indian films in the American market, according to industry experts.Earlier announcing the measure on social media, Trump claimed that “America’s movie business has been stolen by other countries” and compared it to “stealing candy from a baby.” He said the new tariff would address what he called a “never-ending problem” facing Hollywood.
The decision, however, poses significant challenges in implementation given the global and borderless nature of the film business. Still, for India, the world’s largest film-producing nation – the impact could be substantial. The US accounts for 40-60% of the overseas earnings of Hindi films, driven largely by the Indian diaspora.Distributors may have to hike ticket prices in the US to offset the tariff, a move that could reduce footfalls and squeeze their revenue share, industry insiders warned.“To the best of my knowledge, Hollywood derives 60% of its revenues from the rest of the world. This shows the irony of the situation. I think this tariff is likely to impact the last mile consumer a lot,” Pranab Kapadia, director at overseas distribution firm Moviegoers Entertainment told ET.“The impact of tariff is high ticket prices, which will lower the revenue share of distributors of Indian films, thereby hurting the overall box office potential of Indian films,” he added.Kapadia, who is known for distributing films from Karan Johar’s Dharma Productions overseas, pointed out that Hindi films derive 40–60% of their total overseas earnings from the US market. This year’s biggest blockbuster Saiyaara collected over $6 million (Rs 53 crore) in North America alone, making it the third-highest-grossing Indian film in the US.Distributors warn that the short theatrical window before films move to streaming platforms could make audiences reluctant to pay higher ticket prices. “Today, there is such a short window between a film which gets released in theatres and then its showcasing on streaming platforms. In this context, a tariff of 100% makes it even more challenging for distributors to bring footfalls in theatres, especially when they must resort to hiking ticket prices to compensate for the tariff,” ET reported quoting a veteran distributor, who spoke on the condition of anonymity.Industry insiders fear mid- and small-budget films may skip theatrical releases in the US altogether, opting for direct-to-OTT launches. Larger tentpole films may still release but with higher ticket prices and lower margins.“A 100% tariff could wipe out 40% of Indian films’ US revenues, but the deeper worry is the audience fallout. With ticket prices soaring to $20, many diaspora families may abandon theatres,” the outlet reported quoting Suniel Wadhwa, cofounder and director of Karmic Films.“This is not just a tariff. It is a cultural barrier. Cinema is India’s strongest soft power export to the world,” he added.While producers are still assessing the long-term impact, many believe the move will force a recalibration of film distribution and marketing strategies for the American market.With an Indian diaspora of 5.2 million in the US and revenues tied to the dollar, the American box office remains a vital market for Bollywood. But industry voices agree: Trump’s tariff could redraw the economics of Indian cinema abroad.
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