Gold price prediction today: Gold and silver prices are poised for a long-term bull run, though there may be short term volatility due to global factors, says Maneesh Sharma, AVP – Commodities & Currencies, Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers. He shares his views and recommendations for gold and silver investors:Gold continued to shine bright at the start of the current week, climbing past $3,800 per oz for the first time ever in Spot markets. The Yellow metal printed yet another all-time high near $3,871 in Spot on Tuesday after spending much of last week consolidating just below the previous all-time high near $3,791. This was due to positive momentum which returned following the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation report. While the data came in broadly as expected, bets remain elevated that the US Fed might continue easing its rates in the upcoming meeting in October favoring sentiments in Gold & Silver.Meanwhile in the current week the US faces the risk of a government shutdown effective 1st October unless Congress agrees on new funding legislation. Republican leaders in the House pushed a stopgap bill to extend funding through November 21, but Senate Democrats have refused to back it without policy concessions. The dollar had suffered from rising risk of a US government shutdown and falling oil prices since the weekend, with safe haven currencies like yen emerging as the top performer. President Trump had already stated that a shutdown is now likely after little progress on congressional negotiations. In case of a shutdown, a lower Yen may well remain the favourite trade as history shows it lost 1.5% during the 2018-19 shutdown.Finally, focus also remains on US data due later in the week, with the closely monitored JOLTS report due on Tuesday followed by Payrolls on Friday. An upside surprise in US payrolls may bring in volatility in prices, but data might also be delayed due to the risk of shutdown. An extended shutdown may also result in profit booking moves in global equities leading to risk of a near term correction in prices especially in Silver complex.
Gold Price Outlook:
Weekly View: Volatile week ahead for precious metalsBrace for high volatility in bullion prices especially in silver, on a weekly basis as markets witness a data heavy week along with US shutdown risk to persist in the current week. The department of labor had said that the release of economic data, including Non farm payrolls would be suspended if a US shutdown takes place, which could again bring back safe haven appeal in gold on medium term basis.Any major corrective move in global equities in case of US shutdown in near term, needs to be watched out which could limit upside especially in silver prices. This is due the fact that silver had already witnessed a run up of up to 50 % in prices since 21st of April, the day where Gold hit an all time peak, while gold prices are up only 12 – 13 % since then.Again Gold/Silver ratio which has declined to almost 80 levels on Friday (in International Spot markets) from a high of 107 hit on 21st April is now poised to bounce back in near term to 84 – 85 levels indicating Silver may witness more downside moves as compared to Gold in near term.However from a medium to long term perspective, Gold is still poised to continue its bull run as it may test a level $ 3,950 – 4,000 per oz in spot markets by the end of 2025 or by the start of next year. Long term bias in Silver prices also remains positive as a breach of all-time highs in International markets (hit in Apr 2011 around $ 49.60) could be witnessed by the start of next year.(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market and other asset classes given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)
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