While the tariffs are for EU countries, the policy uncertainty under Trump is a reminder for India which is currently negotiating a trade deal with the US. (AI image)
US President Donald Trump’s latest threat to impose tariffs on European Union countries – a move openly linked to Greenland, following these countries’ support for Denmark’s refusal to permit any US takeover of the territory – holds an important warning and lesson for India too!On January 17, 2026, Trump announced 10% import duty on goods from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Finland. The tariffs are scheduled to come into force on February 1 and are set to increase to 25% from June 1. They will remain in place until the United States achieves what Trump described as the “complete and total purchase of Greenland.”While the tariffs are for EU countries, the policy uncertainty under Trump is a reminder for India which is currently negotiating a trade deal with the US. India already faces 50% tariffs for its exports. But, according to Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) founder Ajay Srivastava, the US decision to impose tariffs on European allies over Greenland underlines a reality India cannot ignore: trade deals with the US offer no guaranteed protection when economic measures are used for political leverage.
What Donald Trump Has Threatened:
In a rather long social media post, Donald Trump said that 10% tariffs would be imposed on all European Union countries. This figure will go up to 25% from June this year. What was Trump’s rationale? Here’s what he posted:“We have subsidized Denmark, and all of the Countries of the European Union, and others, for many years by not charging them Tariffs, or any other forms of remuneration. Now, after Centuries, it is time for Denmark to give back — World Peace is at stake! China and Russia want Greenland, and there is not a thing that Denmark can do about it. They currently have two dogsleds as protection, one added recently. Only the United States of America, under PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP, can play in this game, and very successfully, at that! Nobody will touch this sacred piece of Land, especially since the National Security of the United States, and the World at large, is at stake.” “On top of everything else, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, The United Kingdom, The Netherlands, and Finland have journeyed to Greenland, for purposes unknown. This is a very dangerous situation for the Safety, Security, and Survival of our Planet. These Countries, who are playing this very dangerous game, have put a level of risk in play that is not tenable or sustainable. Therefore, it is imperative that, in order to protect Global Peace and Security, strong measures be taken so that this potentially perilous situation end quickly, and without question. Starting on February 1st, 2026, all of the above mentioned Countries (Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, The United Kingdom, The Netherlands, and Finland), will be charged a 10% Tariff on any and all goods sent to the United States of America,” he said.According to Trump, this tariff rate will go up in some months. “On June 1st, 2026, the Tariff will be increased to 25%. This Tariff will be due and payable until such time as a Deal is reached for the Complete and Total purchase of Greenland. The United States has been trying to do this transaction for over 150 years. Many Presidents have tried, and for good reason, but Denmark has always refused. Now, because of The Golden Dome, and Modern Day Weapons Systems, both Offensive and Defensive, the need to ACQUIRE is especially important. Hundreds of Billions of Dollars are currently being spent on Security Programs having to do with “The Dome,” including for the possible protection of Canada, and this very brilliant, but highly complex system can only work at its maximum potential and efficiency, because of angles, metes, and bounds, if this Land is included in it. The United States of America is immediately open to negotiation with Denmark and/or any of these Countries that have put so much at risk, despite all that we have done for them, including maximum protection, over so many decades. Thank you for your attention to this matter!,” he said in his Truth Social Post.On their part, European leaders cautioned against Trump’s warning. A senior German member of the European Parliament said the latest threat cast doubt on the future of the EU–US trade agreement concluded last year. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Antonio Costa responded with a joint statement issued hours after the remarks. They said such measures would weaken transatlantic ties and could trigger a harmful cycle of escalation. They also stressed that Europe would act collectively, remain aligned, and defend its sovereignty.
What’s The Lesson For India?
According to GTRI, there is a lesson for India in Trump’s ever changing policies and uncertain behaviour. Here’s how:“Europe’s experience—like Canada’s earlier treatment and Australia’s subsequent hedging—shows that even close allies are not spared sudden tariff action,” Srivastava cautions.“India has already paid a price by stepping back from Chabahar, altering energy imports and limiting engagement within BRICS, yet continues to face pressure in trade talks,” he adds.Srivastava says that the lesson is clear: New Delhi should not trade away strategic autonomy in the hope that a US trade deal will ensure stability. In a volatile global order, restraint, diversification and sovereign decision-making matter more than promises that can be withdrawn overnight.Coming soon after US actions involving Venezuelan oil assets and regime change, the Greenland episode highlights an approach in which Trump deploys tariffs and sanctions as tools of economic pressure to gain access to other nations’ resources, disregarding established international norms.For European governments, the signal is unambiguous. Even recently negotiated trade arrangements do not shield partners from fresh US tariff measures. The Greenland dispute has, in turn, hastened a wider reconsideration of dependence on the United States.
- Canada, part of the Five Eyes intelligence grouping and one of America’s closest security partners, had earlier faced 35% US tariffs, was told the USMCA no longer mattered, and was subjected to rhetoric portraying it as America’s “51st state.” Ottawa responded by broadening its external relationships, concluding eight agreements with China and seeing Beijing overtake Washington as the top buyer of Canadian crude oil.
- Across Europe, confidence in the US has weakened markedly. Surveys indicate that 76% of Germans now regard America as unreliable, the lowest reading ever recorded.
- Australia has moved to repair ties with China after trade reprisals disrupted exports of wine, barley and coal, while the United Kingdom’s new administration is preparing a visit to China. Together, these shifts point to a clear trend: nations are seeking to cushion themselves against unpredictable US policy moves rather than depending on trade deals as a safeguard.
For India, the consequences are already being felt. But the Greenland episode delivers a straightforward message that agreements with the United States do not insulate partners from coercive measures. “Tariffs and sanctions can be reimposed regardless of agreements. India should therefore avoid making unilateral concessions to the US—on energy sourcing, regional projects, technology platforms, or strategic alignments—in the expectation that a trade deal will buy stability,” notes GTRI.Even the Iran issue provides a cautionary example. When Starlink services were operational there, footage of protests circulated widely. Once the authorities disrupted satellite access and tightened controls, that information flow diminished sharply. Satellite-based networks can bypass national oversight, leaving governments with limited ability to respond. GTRI also strikes a cautionary note on allowing Elon Musk’s Starlink services in India. “As India considers allowing Starlink, it should factor in these strategic risks.” “With limited room to pivot toward China due to border tensions, a $115-billion trade deficit, and Beijing’s support for Pakistan, India’s safest course is principled neutrality: diversify partners, ring-fence sovereign decision-making, insist on reciprocity, and retain leverage across energy, technology, and regional connectivity,” it adds.GTRI concludes by pointing out the most important takeaway from America’s ongoing policy uncertainties: India should not trade strategic autonomy for promises that recent history shows can be withdrawn overnight.
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