Government labour data from 2025 shows that a sharp decline in foreign-born workers under the Trump administration did not improve employment outcomes for United States-born workers. Instead, unemployment among US-born workers increased, while labour force participation edged down, undercutting claims that cutting immigration would strengthen domestic employment.
A sustained fall in the foreign-born workforce
Monthly data from the Bureau of Labor Statisticshousehold survey point to a sustained fall in the number of foreign-born workers throughout 2025. According to an analysis by the National Foundation for American Policy, the foreign-born labour force declined by about 881,000 workers between January and December 2025, and by roughly 1.3 million from its peak in March 2025.The scale of the decline is larger when measured against expectations. The Congressional Budget Office and the Social Security Administration had projected that the United States would have about 1.3 million more foreign-born workers in 2025. When combined with the actual shortfall reported in BLS data, the gap rises to more than two million workers, according to NFAP.
The policy logic behind the restrictions
Supporters of the Trump administration’s immigration agenda had argued that removing foreign-born workers would open up jobs for US-born workers. White House Deputy Chief of Staff, Stephen Miller was among officials who predicted that reduced immigration would raise employment and wages for domestic workers. The logic rested on the assumption that fewer workers competing for jobs would produce gains for those already in the labour market.That assumption reflects what economists describe as the “lump of labour fallacy,” the belief that an economy contains a fixed number of jobs.
Unemployment rose among US-born workers
The data does not support the promised outcome. NFAP reports that the unemployment rate for US-born workers rose from 3.7% in December 2024 to 4.1% in December 2025. That is an increase of about 11% over twelve months. The foundation says that year-on-year comparisons are the most reliable because the BLS does not seasonally adjust unemployment estimates by nativity.Over the same period, broader labour market conditions also weakened. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for all workers increased from 4.0% in January 2025 to 4.4% in December 2025, according to BLS data.“There is no evidence that US-born workers have benefited from the decline in foreign-born workers,” the NFAP concluded in its analysis.
Fewer workers entering or staying in the labour force
Labour force participation data tell a similar story. The participation rate for US-born individuals aged 16 and older fell from 61.4% in December 2024 to 61.2% in December 2025. This suggests that fewer US-born workers entered or remained in the labour market despite the withdrawal of foreign-born workers.“The unemployment and labour force participation rates show fewer of the US-born being able to find jobs and fewer even bothering to look,” said Mark Regets, a labour economist and senior fellow at the NFAP, in an interview with Forbes.
Why fewer immigrants did not create more jobs
Economists point to several reasons why the decline in immigrant labour did not produce broader gains for US-born workers. When firms cannot find enough workers, they often scale back investment or expansion plans, which reduces job creation. Immigrants also contribute to demand through consumer spending on housing, food and services, and they play a significant role in starting new businesses. Limiting that workforce can shrink economic activity rather than redistribute it.“Immigrants help exports, create jobs as consumers, fill niches in the labour market and produce dynamism for the U.S. economy that would not be there,” Regets said.
Long-term workforce and growth implications
The NFAP estimates that Trump administration’s restrictions on legal and illegal immigration could reduce the projected US workforce by 6.8 million by 2028 and by 15.7 million by 2035, while lowering the annual rate of economic growth by nearly one-third. Immigrants accounted for more than half of US labour force growth between 2014 and 2024, according to the foundation.The idea that fewer immigrants automatically create more opportunity for US-born workers has repeatedly failed to match economic evidence. During the 2024 campaign, President Donald Trump privately endorsed this view, crediting Stephen Miller with shaping his thinking.The 2025 data indicates that reducing immigration did not strengthen the labour market position of US-born workers. Instead, the contraction in the workforce coincided with higher unemployment and weaker participation, reinforcing long-standing evidence that labour supply reductions tend to constrain growth rather than spread opportunity.
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