If the biggest news of 2025 is Artificial Intelligence (AI) going mainstream, it is also Google leading the AI war, and at the expense of ChatGPT-maker OpenAI. Almost three years ago, Google CEO Sundar Pichai sent a ‘Code Red’ message to employees across the company over ChatGPT, with Pichai warning it could threaten the future of Search. Late 2025 saw Sam Altman sound an alarm of his own — this time over Google’s Gemini 3 comeback. Sam Altman’s ‘Code Red’ to OpenAI employees came just days after Google released its latest model, Gemini 3, in one of its fastest rollouts across a large swath of Google’s ecosystem with its billions of users. Analysts termed Gemini 3 rollout as its fastest-ever deployment into Google Search. And as the new data from Similarweb reveals: There’s a dramatic reshaping in the AI landscape. In the last 12 months, Google’s Gemini has reportedly more than tripled its slice of generative AI web traffic, climbing from a modest 5.4% to 18.2%. This surge in traffic is said to have come directly at the expense of OpenAI’s ChatGPT. As per Similarweb data, ChatGPT has seen its hold on the market loosen significantly — once commanding an 87.2% share, ChatGPT has slid to 68%, which is a staggering 19% drop.
Solid Finance CEO Sam Badawi said, in a post on Twitter, “THE SHIFT IS REAL. GOOGLE IS TAKING AI TRAFFIC. $GOOGL Gemini has gone from 5.4% to 18.2% of Gen AI web traffic in 12 months. That is not noise, that is a takeover arc. Nearly +13 points of share in a category that was once considered dominated by OpenAI.” He further noted, “If you believe web behavior reflects user preference at scale, then this is the clearest signal that [Google] is not only in the game, it is winning share.“Also, as per a recent report by Menlo Ventures, in the lucrative market for enterprise customers, OpenAI appears to have lost significant market share, falling to 27%, while Gemini has risen to 21% and rival startup Anthropic leads at 40%. Incidentally, OpenAI disputes the figures from Menlo, noting that the venture capital company is an investor in Anthropic.
Google shares jump 60%-plus this year, powered by Gemini and more
Wall Street too seems to have given Google’s Gemini success a huge applause. Shares of Google-parent Alphabet are on track to become the best annual performer within the “Magnificent Seven” for the first time, gaining 65.6% since the beginning of the year. Adoption of Gemini has become a key signal for Google’s position in the AI race. Bank of America’s Justin Post wrote in a December note that “we see potential for Gemini to be seen as a demand generator for Search and Google Cloud.” Google’s image-editing tool Nano Banana, released in September, too helped Gemini climb in popularity earlier this year.In its third quarter earnings, Google’s parent company Alphabet announced that its Gemini app now has 650 million monthly active users, up from 450 million in July.
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