Gold is likely to trade in a tight range in the near term as investors await key US economic indicators—including GDP and inflation data—and signals from the Federal Reserve’s December policy meeting that could define the direction of interest rates, analysts said, according to news agency PTI. They added that weekly US jobless claims, consumer confidence data and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI will also shape market expectations on the Fed’s stance. Pranav Mer, Vice President, EBG – Commodity & Currency Research, JM Financial Services Ltd, said gold may “continue to see some consolidation (as focus remains) on the US data ahead of the Fed’s December policy meeting”, adding that housing, consumer confidence, jobless claims, GDP and PCE inflation numbers will be tracked closely.
Volatility, global cues and institutional demand
On MCX, gold futures for the December contract rose Rs 630, or 0.51 per cent, last week. Mer said the metal saw sharp price swings due to hawkish Fed commentary, fading hopes of a rate cut in December and a stronger dollar. He added that expectations of an end to the Russia-Ukraine war reduced risk premiums, while central-bank purchases—“with China adding gold for the 12th straight month and dumping US treasuries along with ETF inflows”—supported prices. In global markets, Comex gold futures gained USD 51.4, or 1.25 per cent, during the week. “Comex gold futures closed marginally higher, but the stronger dollar kept sentiment capped,” said Pankaj Singh, Investment Manager on smallcase and Founder & Principal Researcher SmartWealth.ai. FOMC minutes suggested policymakers may keep rates elevated through 2025, trimming December cut odds to 36 per cent, Singh said, adding that thin holiday-week liquidity could add volatility.
Record highs tempered by rate concerns
Riya Singh, Research Analyst, Commodities and Currency, Emkay Global Financial Services, said gold has pulled back after hitting a record high in October and tends to underperform when rate easing is delayed. She said the metal remains up roughly 55 per cent for the year, supported by earlier rate cuts, central-bank accumulation and ETF inflows, adding that recent gains reflect a “debasement trade” as investors exit sovereign debt. “The medium-term structure for bullion remains constructive, with expectations for policy easing in 2026, persistent geopolitical uncertainty, and strong official-sector demand continuing to anchor the broader uptrend,” she said.
Silver trends and technical outlook
Silver futures on MCX for December delivery fell Rs 1,867, or 1.12 per cent, last week, while Comex silver futures declined 1.52 per cent. Mer said silver turned volatile along with industrial metals, adding that momentum looks “sideways/corrective” with resistance at Rs 1,56,700-1,59,200 per kg and support at Rs 1,49,500. A breakdown below that could trigger further declines to Rs 1.39-1.40 lakh per kg, he said. Analysts said safe-haven demand may support gold, but elevated rates and a firm dollar could cap gains in the near term.(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market, other asset classes or personal finance management tips given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)
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